1、 Oil prices soar, industrial chain costs rise
Recently, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, and global energy supply expectations have tightened. Brent crude oil once exceeded $82 per barrel, with a daily increase of nearly 13%. Crude oil, as the basic raw material for chemical fibers and plastics, experiences rapid price fluctuations along the industry chain
On the chemical fiber side, the prices of raw materials such as PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester, nylon, etc. have risen synchronously, and the raw material cost of textile enterprises accounts for more than 60%, directly pushing up the comprehensive production cost by 5% -15%.
Plastic end: The prices of general and engineering plastics such as PE, PP, PVC, ABS, etc. have generally increased. For every $10/barrel increase in oil prices, the cost of plastic has risen by 300-500 yuan/ton.
2、 Dual squeezing of supply and logistics
1. Supply disruption: Iran is an important exporter of oil and methanol, and conflicts have hindered the export of related sources, exacerbating market shortages expectations.
2. Logistics premium: The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and the cost of oil tanker detours and war risks has skyrocketed, further pushing up the cost of raw materials to the factory.
3、 Industry impact and enterprise response
The cost pressure is transmitted downstream, and the profit margins of small and medium-sized textile and plastic product enterprises are compressed. Some enterprises have suspended quotations or adjusted prices in batches.
Leading enterprises have stronger risk resistance capabilities through integrated industrial chains and raw material reserves; The industry is accelerating the process of survival of the fittest.
Downstream packaging, home appliances, automobiles, footwear and clothing, home textiles and other fields will face phased price pressure.
4、 Future prospects
If geopolitical conflicts continue, oil prices will remain volatile at high levels, and chemical fiber and plastic prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The industry suggests that enterprises strengthen raw material inventory management, optimize order pricing, and promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement to cope with this round of cost impact.